Forex Analysis For US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment – 12/02/11
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 120K Previous 80K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 9.0% Previous 9.0%
ACTION: 190K BUY AUDJPY / 50K SELL AUDJPY
The Trade Plan
Todays NFP Employment Change release is forecasted at 120K. The ADP employment report revealed a much better private job growth rate in November temporary hiring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 9.0%. If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (50K or worse) and Unemployment Rate (9.0% or worse), I´d be looking to Buy JPY or SELL AUDJPY, EURJPY, even GBPJPY on retracements. On the other hand, if we get a positive NFP release (190K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains at 9.0% or better, JPY should weaken immediately as AUD/JPY may recover and move above the 80 level throughout the trading session… (Note other JPY pairs would react the same way as AUDJPY, therefore you could also look to trade GBPJPY and EURJPY).
If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.












