Trend : Up

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.4575
Kijun-Sen level : 1.4483
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.4302
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.4292

New strategy

Buy at 1.4536, Target: 1.4606, Stop: 1.4500

Despite rising to 1.4636 last Friday, the retreat from there suggests a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation below there would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4483) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.4466/67 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4636 and previous support), bring another rally and above said resistance would extend gain towards 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747), however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4700 and reckon price would falter well below 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177).

In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to buy euro on dips. Only below 1.4407 (another previous resistance) would defer and risk correction to 1.4360/65 but the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 1.4292-1.4302) should hold

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.4313
Kijun-Sen level : 1.4306
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.4257
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.4211

New strategy

Buy at 1.4230, Target: 1.4380, Stop: 1.4180

Although the single currency has retreated, the break of 1.4377 resistance yesterday suggests the rise from 1.4045 is still in progress and gain towards recent high at 1.4448, however, only break there would signal medium term upmove has resumed towards 1.4490/00, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

In view of the above analysis, we prefer to buy euro on pullback as downside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4257) and support at 1.4205 (also below the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 1.4211) should hold and bring such rally later.

USD/CHF – 1.0674

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.0648
Kijun-Sen level : 1.0634
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.0752
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.0690

Original strategy

Buy at 1.0630, Target: 1.0750, Stop: 1.0560

New trading strategy

Buy at 1.0600, Target: 1.0720, Stop: 1.0550

Although the greenback rallied to 1.0717 yesterday, as price has eased after running into resistance at Ichimoku cloud bottom, consolidation would be seen and retreat to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0634) cannot be ruled out, however, minor support at 1.0580 (yesterday’s low) should limit downside and bring another strong rebound later. Above said resistance would bring stronger correction of recent decline from 1.0885 to 1.0752/58 (current level of Ichimoku cloud top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0885 to 1.0553), however, resistance at 1.0834 would remain intact.

In view of the above analysis, we are still looking buy dollar on pullback for such move. Only below 1.0553 support would signal downtrend has resumed towards 1.0500/10.

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6302
Kijun-Sen level : 1.6392
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6497
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6467

Original strategy

Sell at 1.6335, Target: 1.6160, Stop: 1.6395

New strategy

Sell at 1.6335, Target: 1.6160, Stop: 1.6395

Although the British pound has recovered after falling to 1.6160 yesterday and consolidation above there would take place, upside should be limited to 1.6338 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6625 to 1.6160) and renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline. Below said support would extend the fall from 1.7044 to 1.6150 (61.8% projection of 1.7044 to 1.6275 measuring from 1.6625), however, as the decline is losing near term downward momentum, reckon 1.6100 would limit downside.

In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell sterling on recovery for such a move. Only above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6392) would dampen this bearish view and risk correction to 1.6419 (previous support turned resistance) and then the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6467).

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.4279
Kijun-Sen level : 1.4291
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.4199
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.4187

Original strategy

Exit long entered at 1.4230

New strategy

Sell at 1.4330, Target: 1.4200, Stop: 1.4380

The single currency fell to as low as 1.4205 yesterday and although the pair recovered after trading above the Ichimoku cloud area and gain to the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4279 and 1.4291 respectively) cannot be ruled out, resistance at 1.4377 should continue to hold and bring another decline later. Break of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4187) would suggest the rise from 1.4045 has ended but below 1.4172/73 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4045 to 1.4377 and previous resistance turned support) would confirm and extend fall to 1.4120/30.

In view of this, we are turning short on recovery but one must book profit on such a decline. Above 1.4377 would revive previous bullish view for gain to 1.4415 but price should falter below recent high at 1.4448.

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 94.21
Kijun-Sen level : 94.25
Ichimoku cloud top : 95.70
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 94.44

Original strategy

Bought at 93.90, Target: 95.00, Stop: 93.70

New Strategy

Hold long entered at 93.90, Target: 95.00, Stop: 93.70

Another day of sideways consolidation should take place today and as long as yesterday’s low at 93.79 holds, mild upside bias remains for a corrective rebound towards 95.07 but it is necessary to see a break of 95.30 resistance to confirm low has been formed at 93.42 and bring stronger retracement towards 95.61 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire fall from 97.79 to 93.42). Having said that, as the Ichimoku cloud is getting thicker, strong resistance would appear near the upper Kumo (now at 95.70)

In view of the above analysis, we are holding on to our long position for such a rise. Below 93.79 support would risk retest of 93.42, break there would extend one more fall to 93.09, however, downside should be limited to 92.70/80 and 92.48 (1.618 times projection of 97.79 to 95.12 measuring from 96.80) should remain intact.

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Exit Short Entered At 1.6440 And Sell At 1.6460

GBP/USD – 1.6348

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6375
Kijun-Sen level : 1.6465
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6497
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.6463

Original strategy

Sold at 1.6440, Target: 1.6290, Stop: 1.6500

New strategy

Exit short entered at 1.6440 and Sell at 1.6460, Target: 1.6300, Stop: 1.6520

Despite cable’s anticipated fall to 1.6305 this morning, the recovery from there partly due to cross-trading suggests minor consolidation would take place and correction to yesterday’s high at 1.6446 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling should emerge around 1.6463/65 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and Kijun-Sen) and bring another decline later. Below 1.6305 would bring retest of 1.6275 but it is necessary to see a drop below 1.6275 support to extend the decline from 1.7044 to 1.6241 (50% projection of 1.7044 to 1.6275 measuring from 1.6225.

In view of the above analysis, we are taking profit on our short position entered at 1.6440 (with 92 points profit) and look to sell cable again on recovery. Only above minor resistance at 1.6547 would prolong choppy consolidation above 1.6275.